BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+70%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Wood Duck In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Great Basin is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±295.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±295.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Great Basin is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±295.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.47
20260.210.000.47
20270.210.000.47
20280.210.000.47
20290.210.000.48

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Wood Duck in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moses LakeWASHINGTON172010
Iron GateCALIFORNIA62019
Pasadena ValIDAHO62010
Modoc PointOREGON62018
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON62015
NubieberCALIFORNIA52018
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA52007
NighthawkWASHINGTON52024
NixonNEVADA42015
Dell SpringOREGON41984
UmatillaOREGON42023
LeavenworthWASHINGTON41996
PotholesWASHINGTON42013
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON42024
DorrisCALIFORNIA32017
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA32007
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA21999
MacdoelCALIFORNIA22017
HackamoreCALIFORNIA22010
BlyOREGON21995
Bly 2OREGON22009
Catlow RimOREGON22019
ChinchaloOREGON22024
Bear RiverUTAH22007
BrewsterWASHINGTON21995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.