BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Coastal California has surged: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+132%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Coastal California: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Wood Duck In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Coastal California is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±315%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+104%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±315%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Coastal California is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±315%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.000.83
20260.380.000.83
20270.380.000.84
20280.390.000.84
20290.390.000.84

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Wood Duck in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LockwoodCALIFORNIA102005
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA72009
Gold HillCALIFORNIA52024
PenningtonCALIFORNIA42009
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA42023
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA32015
MoragaCALIFORNIA32011
Red BluffCALIFORNIA22023
HughsonCALIFORNIA22024
CoalingaCALIFORNIA21996
SangerCALIFORNIA22019
GlennCALIFORNIA22018
OrovilleCALIFORNIA22024
Mark WestCALIFORNIA21987
RumseyCALIFORNIA12005
GravesboroCALIFORNIA11995
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA11993
AuburnCALIFORNIA11978
OrlandCALIFORNIA12015
OnoCALIFORNIA12012
FolsomCALIFORNIA12012
CrestonCALIFORNIA11977
WestleyCALIFORNIA12022
TehamaCALIFORNIA11998
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.