BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
292Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.18–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.18–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.170.58
20260.380.170.59
20270.380.170.59
20280.380.180.59
20290.390.180.59

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Wood Duck in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA252014
CoshoctonOHIO181991
Pocono SummitPENNSYLVANIA142023
CartersvilleGEORGIA132017
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY102022
Mt OliveALABAMA92014
Mt NeboMARYLAND91969
Coal RunOHIO91991
EldredPENNSYLVANIA92010
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA92018
StickleyvillVIRGINIA91975
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA82024
S VandaliaNEW-YORK72003
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA72011
Sugar GroveWEST-VIRGINIA72006
EllentonPENNSYLVANIA62019
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA62019
DrummondALABAMA52022
Amos MillGEORGIA52021
DownsvilleNEW-YORK52017
ToddNORTH-CAROLINA52022
NewcomerstwnOHIO51994
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA52018
Mt OliveTENNESSEE52019
DawsonALABAMA41996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.