BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Southeastern Coastal Plain has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
286Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has risen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.38–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.38–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.370.98
20260.680.370.98
20270.680.380.98
20280.680.380.99
20290.690.380.99

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Wood Duck in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA262022
PinetopsNORTH-CAROLINA122022
BethanyGEORGIA82021
Bay MinetteALABAMA72024
St Vincent IFLORIDA72018
NeelyMISSISSIPPI72011
PittsGEORGIA62024
WorkmoreGEORGIA62005
ScoobaMISSISSIPPI61981
BloxhamFLORIDA52022
New HopeFLORIDA52010
FowlstownGEORGIA52013
WrightsvilleGEORGIA51993
BostonGEORGIA52024
UticaMISSISSIPPI51986
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA52023
GreensboroALABAMA42023
GrangeburgALABAMA42024
CastleberryALABAMA42024
MillryALABAMA42011
Dauphin IsALABAMA41989
Rock ChapelALABAMA42023
BelmontFLORIDA42024
Alligator PtFLORIDA42022
DeepstepGEORGIA42011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.