BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+134%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wood Duck In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 94% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.23–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+94%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 94% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.23–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.193.7
20262.00.203.7
20272.00.213.8
20282.00.223.8
20292.00.233.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Wood Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EnglandARKANSAS72021
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI72011
Baton RougeLOUISIANA62024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI62022
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI62021
DellARKANSAS52018
WilsonARKANSAS52024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI52023
HughesARKANSAS42019
SaffellARKANSAS42017
KelsoARKANSAS42011
KraemerLOUISIANA42024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA42014
TippoMISSISSIPPI42021
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI42023
West TylerARKANSAS31984
South BendARKANSAS32023
HarrisburgARKANSAS31999
MaynardARKANSAS32024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA31986
KeystoneLOUISIANA32013
ShawLOUISIANA32024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA32017
Rayville 2LOUISIANA32016
River RoadLOUISIANA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.