BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+172%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.58–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.58–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.522.9
20271.70.532.9
20281.80.553.0
20291.80.563.0
20301.80.583.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Wood Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OmroWISCONSIN291999
CochraneWISCONSIN232025
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA152025
BismarkOHIO141995
Columbia CtyINDIANA102024
Big RapidsMICHIGAN81990
HomerMICHIGAN82017
HebronWISCONSIN82025
Fall RiverWISCONSIN72024
GreshamWISCONSIN72025
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN62025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA62025
AshbyMINNESOTA62021
WiotaWISCONSIN62024
KielWISCONSIN62025
GalesburgMICHIGAN52025
St CharlesMICHIGAN52010
KnappMINNESOTA52019
GlenwoodMINNESOTA52019
Indiana DuneINDIANA42025
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN42025
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN42019
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN42025
TrempealeauWISCONSIN42025
CascoWISCONSIN42018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.