BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+146%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.59–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.59–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.532.9
20261.80.553.0
20271.80.563.0
20281.80.573.0
20291.80.593.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Wood Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OmroWISCONSIN291999
Indiana DuneINDIANA162023
BismarkOHIO141995
KielWISCONSIN122022
Columbia CtyINDIANA102024
Big RapidsMICHIGAN81990
HomerMICHIGAN82017
OsseoMINNESOTA82021
HudsonWISCONSIN82024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN72024
AshbyMINNESOTA62021
WiotaWISCONSIN62024
St CharlesMICHIGAN52010
KnappMINNESOTA52019
GlenwoodMINNESOTA52019
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA52024
MontereyMICHIGAN42024
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN42019
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA42021
CochraneWISCONSIN42024
CascoWISCONSIN42018
N FreedomWISCONSIN42021
HollandWISCONSIN42012
LakevilleINDIANA32016
BravoMICHIGAN32013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.