BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+103%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Wood Duck In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.39
20260.180.000.39
20270.190.000.40
20280.190.000.40
20290.190.000.40

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Wood Duck in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peach CreekTEXAS71974
BonnerTEXAS42016
Gambill Ref.TEXAS42023
Miller GroveTEXAS32003
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA22003
ChoctawOKLAHOMA22019
TatumsOKLAHOMA22007
SchroederTEXAS21995
E GeorgetownTEXAS21974
SeldenTEXAS22009
LydiaTEXAS22023
DikeTEXAS22018
SadlerTEXAS21991
GainesvilleTEXAS22019
CayugaTEXAS22018
CarlosTEXAS22023
Blue RidgeTEXAS22021
YoakumTEXAS21999
PaigeTEXAS22018
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12018
NobleOKLAHOMA12021
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11973
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12021
MuldoonTEXAS11995
Oak GroveTEXAS11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.