BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+99%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Wood Duck In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 195% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+195%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±161.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 195% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.39
20270.180.000.39
20280.180.000.39
20290.180.000.39
20300.180.000.39

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Wood Duck in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peach CreekTEXAS71974
BonnerTEXAS42016
Gambill Ref.TEXAS42023
Miller GroveTEXAS32003
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA22003
ChoctawOKLAHOMA22019
TatumsOKLAHOMA22007
SchroederTEXAS21995
E GeorgetownTEXAS21974
WeatherfordTEXAS22025
SeldenTEXAS22009
LydiaTEXAS22023
DikeTEXAS22018
SadlerTEXAS21991
GainesvilleTEXAS22019
CayugaTEXAS22018
CarlosTEXAS22023
Blue RidgeTEXAS22021
YoakumTEXAS21999
PaigeTEXAS22018
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12018
NobleOKLAHOMA12021
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11973
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.