BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 843% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+843%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 843% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.04–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.04–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.010.78
20260.400.020.79
20270.410.030.79
20280.410.030.80
20290.420.040.80

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Wood Duck in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BerwynNEBRASKA101994
ElginOKLAHOMA101994
BrownleeNEBRASKA72023
ColdwaterKANSAS62011
Ash ValleyKANSAS62007
LibertyNEBRASKA62003
StrattonNEBRASKA52016
CoatsKANSAS42009
BelvidereNEBRASKA42024
NenzelNEBRASKA42024
ChambersNEBRASKA42023
SutherlandNEBRASKA42023
JewellKANSAS31999
Jewell 2KANSAS32007
JamestownKANSAS32017
WellingtonKANSAS22015
DaltonKANSAS22022
HanoverKANSAS22023
MinneapolisKANSAS22009
LoganKANSAS22022
SolomonKANSAS22010
HopewellKANSAS22012
GoesselKANSAS22013
SumnerNEBRASKA22007
SurpriseNEBRASKA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.