BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-73%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wood Duck in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Wood Duck In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.030.000.08
20200.030.000.08
20210.030.000.07
20220.030.000.07
20230.030.000.07

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Wood Duck in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fort MorganCOLORADO61998
FlemingCOLORADO42005
AbarrCOLORADO21985
JulesburgCOLORADO22013
GrigstonKANSAS22006
Agate 2NEBRASKA22013
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA22015
YoderWYOMING21992
PinneoCOLORADO11981
HudsonCOLORADO12004
PaxtonNEBRASKA12016
BenkelmanNEBRASKA12017
Murray LakeNEBRASKA11997
CrawfordNEBRASKA11997
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO12018
LingleWYOMING11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.