BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+116%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.20–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.20–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.171.2
20260.670.181.2
20270.680.181.2
20280.680.191.2
20290.690.201.2

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Wood Duck in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N WilmurtNEW-YORK131998
GarrettsvileOHIO91991
MaysvilleOHIO71993
Grand IsleVERMONT72023
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK62014
CastileNEW-YORK62024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK62016
ArgyleNEW-YORK52024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA52019
AusterlitzNEW-YORK42024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK42024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK42024
WaylandOHIO42012
HiramOHIO42019
BristolVERMONT42000
W ShokanNEW-YORK31980
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK31994
RushvilleNEW-YORK32017
West SenecaNEW-YORK32004
RandolphNEW-YORK32016
SheridanNEW-YORK31991
HighlandNEW-YORK22005
E YoungstownNEW-YORK22018
N Victory 2NEW-YORK22016
North EastonNEW-YORK22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.