BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+151%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wood Duck In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.16–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.16–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.460.150.78
20260.460.150.78
20270.470.150.78
20280.470.160.78
20290.470.160.79

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Wood Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imp LakeMICHIGAN82016
BlackduckMINNESOTA72022
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA72023
Seney NwrMICHIGAN62024
BemidjiMINNESOTA61980
NebishMINNESOTA62023
IronsMICHIGAN51989
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN52010
Grand ViewWISCONSIN52024
WilsonMICHIGAN41993
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN42024
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN41995
MayfieldMICHIGAN42021
TahquamenonMICHIGAN32021
Crane LakeMINNESOTA32016
HollisterWISCONSIN32011
BerglandMICHIGAN21990
Maple GroveMICHIGAN21997
IshpemingMICHIGAN21991
CreightonMICHIGAN22016
PickfordMICHIGAN22024
FredericMICHIGAN21981
Mille LacsMINNESOTA22018
MahtowaMINNESOTA22016
JordanMINNESOTA22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.