BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Winter Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+108%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Winter Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Winter Wren In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.10
20260.040.000.10
20270.040.000.10
20280.040.000.10
20290.040.000.10

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Winter Wren in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShermanCONNECTICUT22013
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS22021
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE21995
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE22023
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT11974
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT11991
WoodstockCONNECTICUT11996
WestbrookCONNECTICUT11992
GreenwichCONNECTICUT11975
DanburyCONNECTICUT11976
WarrenCONNECTICUT12010
Long HillCONNECTICUT11974
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT12024
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT11999
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT12021
GranbyCONNECTICUT12023
Cape NeddickMAINE11993
Kittery PtMAINE11991
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS12005
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS11988
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS11973
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS12000
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS11999
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS12024
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.