BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Winter Wren In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Winter Wren in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

24×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Winter Wren in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Winter Wren In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.20–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.20–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.180.55
20270.370.180.56
20280.380.190.56
20290.380.190.57
20300.390.200.57

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Winter Wren in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA182002
Russell CityPENNSYLVANIA82025
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA82025
N. Mills RivNORTH-CAROLINA71995
Cades CoveTENNESSEE52024
LynchPENNSYLVANIA42025
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA42021
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA42023
MeridaleNEW-YORK32025
Platte CoveNEW-YORK32018
SwainNEW-YORK32005
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA32021
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA32025
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA32023
BerwickPENNSYLVANIA32000
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA32025
TellicoTENNESSEE32022
Iron Mtn.VIRGINIA32010
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA32025
LaurensNEW-YORK22025
McdonoughNEW-YORK22017
E NewarkNEW-YORK22021
DownsvilleNEW-YORK22019
MilfordNEW-YORK22022
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.