BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Winter Wren in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

25×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Winter Wren In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.39 (95% range 0.20–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.39 (95% range 0.20–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.180.55
20260.370.180.56
20270.380.190.56
20280.380.200.57
20290.390.200.58

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Winter Wren in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA182002
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA142024
N. Mills RivNORTH-CAROLINA71995
Newfound GapTENNESSEE72024
Russell CityPENNSYLVANIA62024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA52024
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA52024
Cades CoveTENNESSEE52024
OdinPENNSYLVANIA42024
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA42021
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA42023
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA42024
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA42024
MeridaleNEW-YORK32024
Platte CoveNEW-YORK32018
SwainNEW-YORK32005
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA32021
LoguePENNSYLVANIA32023
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA32023
EllentonPENNSYLVANIA32024
BerwickPENNSYLVANIA32000
TellicoTENNESSEE32022
Iron Mtn.VIRGINIA32010
McdonoughNEW-YORK22017
OneontaNEW-YORK22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.