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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Winter Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+107%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
153Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Winter Wren In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 2.3–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 2.3–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.02.19.9
20266.12.29.9
20276.12.210.0
20286.12.210
20296.22.310

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Winter Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury PdMAINE651968
TelosMAINE312006
InletNEW-YORK312017
WytopitlockMAINE291998
Seboomook LkMAINE252014
Carrying PlMAINE242024
Wilson MillsMAINE232024
Baker LakeMAINE232009
NesowadnehunMAINE222021
BaxterMAINE211988
Heron LakeMAINE212003
LudlowMAINE201998
ReedsMAINE182024
YankeetuladiMAINE182009
Clayton LakeMAINE162008
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE162024
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK162017
WashburnMAINE152005
WaiteMAINE141977
Big Twenty 2MAINE142009
Old ForgeNEW-YORK142006
CharlestonMAINE132019
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE132000
Jeffers NtchNEW-HAMPSHIRE132024
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.