BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Winter Wren In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Winter Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Winter Wren In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 2.1–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–10.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 2.1–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.92.09.8
20275.92.09.8
20286.02.09.9
20296.02.19.9
20306.02.110.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Winter Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury PdMAINE651968
TelosMAINE312006
InletNEW-YORK312017
Seboomook LkMAINE252014
Baker LakeMAINE232009
NesowadnehunMAINE222021
BaxterMAINE211988
Heron LakeMAINE212003
LudlowMAINE201998
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE202025
Carrying PlMAINE192025
YankeetuladiMAINE182009
Clayton LakeMAINE162008
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK162017
WashburnMAINE152005
Wilson MillsMAINE142025
WaiteMAINE141977
Big Twenty 2MAINE142009
Old ForgeNEW-YORK142006
Northfld FlsVERMONT142025
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE132000
NewcombNEW-YORK132022
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK132019
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK122010
St DavidMAINE112005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.