Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regions Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Forest birds

Winter Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 784% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+784%Since 1972

36Routes In Region

52Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Winter Wren has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 784% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.15–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029

0.27Projected 2029 index

0.15–0.4095% range

±31.5%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% low	95% high
2025	0.26	0.13	0.39
2026	0.26	0.13	0.39
2027	0.27	0.14	0.39
2028	0.27	0.14	0.40
2029	0.27	0.15	0.40

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Winter Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.

Parishville	NEW-YORK	8	2024
N Wilmurt	NEW-YORK	4	1998
Willsboro	NEW-YORK	4	2024
Balmat	NEW-YORK	3	2007
Mt Morris	NEW-YORK	2	1997
West Bangor	NEW-YORK	2	1998
Teepleville	PENNSYLVANIA	2	1993
Shaftsbury	VERMONT	2	2001
Colchester	VERMONT	2	2003
Highland	NEW-YORK	1	1999
W Shokan	NEW-YORK	1	2019
Austerlitz	NEW-YORK	1	1996
Catskills	NEW-YORK	1	1988
Trumansburg	NEW-YORK	1	2022
Orleans	NEW-YORK	1	1977
Canadice L	NEW-YORK	1	2022
Castile	NEW-YORK	1	2013
Randolph	NEW-YORK	1	2018
Sheridan	NEW-YORK	1	1989
Cherry Hill	NEW-YORK	1	2014
Churchville	NEW-YORK	1	1975
Penfield	NEW-YORK	1	1996
N Victory 2	NEW-YORK	1	1979
Cicero Ctr	NEW-YORK	1	1989
Watertown	NEW-YORK	1	1991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.