BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Winter Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 784% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+784%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Winter Wren has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 784% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Winter Wren In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.15–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.15–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.130.39
20260.260.130.39
20270.270.140.39
20280.270.140.40
20290.270.150.40

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Winter Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ParishvilleNEW-YORK82024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK41998
WillsboroNEW-YORK42024
BalmatNEW-YORK32007
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK21997
West BangorNEW-YORK21998
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA21993
ShaftsburyVERMONT22001
ColchesterVERMONT22003
HighlandNEW-YORK11999
W ShokanNEW-YORK12019
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11996
CatskillsNEW-YORK11988
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12022
OrleansNEW-YORK11977
Canadice LNEW-YORK12022
CastileNEW-YORK12013
RandolphNEW-YORK12018
SheridanNEW-YORK11989
Cherry HillNEW-YORK12014
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK11975
PenfieldNEW-YORK11996
N Victory 2NEW-YORK11979
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK11989
WatertownNEW-YORK11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.