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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Warbler In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Wilson's Warbler in BCR 2 has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-48%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Warbler in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Warbler In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Warbler in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 8.6–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.6–5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Warbler in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 8.6–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025318.853
2026318.853
2027318.753
2028318.753
2029318.653

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Wilson's Warbler in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KodiakALASKA911984
DillinghamALASKA782019
Kodiak 2ALASKA492024
ChiniakALASKA482024
Gweek RiverALASKA472002
King SalmonALASKA442024
Katmai N.P.ALASKA412022
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA401984
Togiak RiverALASKA382005
Kanektok RivALASKA242005
Goodnews BayALASKA212005
CouncilALASKA182024
NomeALASKA182023
TupuknukALASKA181995
St. Mary'SALASKA162014
Salmon LakeALASKA112024
TellerALASKA62024
Cape NomeALASKA42024
Selawik (Short)ALASKA41987
KotzebueALASKA32024
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA31994
Cold BayALASKA22024
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.