BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Wilson's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Warbler has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wilson's Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.65–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.65–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.601.7
20261.20.611.7
20271.20.621.8
20281.20.641.8
20291.20.651.8

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Wilson's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TincupCOLORADO322024
Lost LakeCOLORADO122024
Weston PassCOLORADO112000
Marshall PasCOLORADO112014
Blackhead PkCOLORADO72021
Comanche PkCOLORADO72024
CortezCOLORADO62005
Stillwater PassCOLORADO62007
Willow PeakCOLORADO52017
Rifle FallsCOLORADO52013
Mount EvansCOLORADO52014
CebollaNEW-MEXICO51978
YampaCOLORADO42023
SummitvilleCOLORADO42024
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO42023
Guanella PasCOLORADO42024
PinonCOLORADO42004
Groundhog RsCOLORADO42024
Weston Pass 2COLORADO42024
ColonaCOLORADO31981
ParlinCOLORADO32022
Wet Mtns.COLORADO31997
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO32019
NuclaCOLORADO32006
Lizard Head PassCOLORADO32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.