BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Snipe In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Wilson's Snipe in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

34×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Snipe has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wilson's Snipe In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Snipe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.1–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Snipe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 4.1–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.53.77.3
20265.63.87.4
20275.73.97.5
20285.84.07.6
20295.94.17.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Wilson's Snipe in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA562011
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA312024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA312011
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA262024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA222024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA202009
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA192022
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA162024
ClevelandMONTANA152024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA152024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA132024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA132013
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA132024
HarlemMONTANA122021
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA122022
GlentanaMONTANA112024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA112024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA112019
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA112024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA112024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA102022
ChinookMONTANA92024
BadgerMINNESOTA82018
WhitlashMONTANA82024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.