BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wilson's Phalarope In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 279% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+279%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 279% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Wilson's Phalarope In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 65% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±626.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±626.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 65% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±626.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.000.80
20270.340.000.81
20280.340.000.81
20290.340.000.82
20300.350.000.82

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YoderWYOMING702025
NunnCOLORADO292014
LeotiKANSAS202010
BereaNEBRASKA132000
ClaytonvilleTEXAS122015
BriggsdaleCOLORADO101996
PlymellKANSAS102024
KimballNEBRASKA92015
PantexTEXAS91989
JulesburgCOLORADO82021
HookerOKLAHOMA82015
PritchettCOLORADO72002
WallaceKANSAS62010
PanhandleTEXAS62025
DalhartTEXAS52016
AmherstCOLORADO41995
KarvalCOLORADO42017
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO42001
WakaTEXAS41984
KiowaCOLORADO32000
EdlerCOLORADO32014
PaxtonNEBRASKA32012
LamarCOLORADO22023
StonehamCOLORADO22021
BennettCOLORADO22001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.