BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Shortgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+69%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has risen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Wilson's Phalarope In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1309%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1309%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1309%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.67
20260.260.000.67
20270.260.000.67
20280.260.000.67
20290.260.000.67

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NunnCOLORADO292014
LeotiKANSAS202010
BereaNEBRASKA132000
ClaytonvilleTEXAS122015
PanhandleTEXAS122016
BriggsdaleCOLORADO101996
PlymellKANSAS102024
KimballNEBRASKA92015
PantexTEXAS91989
JulesburgCOLORADO82021
HookerOKLAHOMA82015
PritchettCOLORADO72002
WallaceKANSAS62010
DalhartTEXAS52016
AmherstCOLORADO41995
KarvalCOLORADO42017
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO42001
WakaTEXAS41984
YoderWYOMING42023
KiowaCOLORADO32000
EdlerCOLORADO32014
PaxtonNEBRASKA32012
Agate 2NEBRASKA32008
LamarCOLORADO22023
StonehamCOLORADO22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.