BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wilson's Phalarope In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Phalarope In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 215% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+215%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 215% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.13.3
20272.21.13.4
20282.31.23.4
20292.31.23.4
20302.31.23.4

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA302011
MaltaMONTANA202023
WylieMINNESOTA121981
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA102009
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA102024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA102013
SunburstMONTANA92007
HarlemMONTANA72021
Ester LakeMONTANA72024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA72025
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA72025
SacoMONTANA62024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA62024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA62006
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA62025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA62012
GildfordMONTANA52023
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA52023
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA52025
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA52006
ShelbyMONTANA42024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA41983
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA42025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA42025
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA42010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.