BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wilson's Phalarope In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.4–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.4–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.33.4
20262.31.33.4
20272.41.33.4
20282.41.33.4
20292.41.43.4

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA452022
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA302011
MaltaMONTANA202023
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA152024
WylieMINNESOTA121981
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA102009
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA102024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA102013
SunburstMONTANA92007
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA92022
GlentanaMONTANA82024
HarlemMONTANA72021
Ester LakeMONTANA72024
SacoMONTANA62024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA62024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA62006
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA62024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA62012
GildfordMONTANA52023
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA52024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA52006
ShelbyMONTANA42024
LambertMONTANA42023
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA41983
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.