BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+64%Since 1969
86Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Wilson's Phalarope has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.4–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+83%Change by 2029
2.4Projected 2029 index
1.4–3.495% range
±56.7%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.31.33.4
20262.31.33.4
20272.41.33.4
20282.41.33.4
20292.41.43.4

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Prairie Potholes.
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA452022
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA302011
MaltaMONTANA202023
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA152024
WylieMINNESOTA121981
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA102009
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA102024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA102013
SunburstMONTANA92007
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA92022
GlentanaMONTANA82024
HarlemMONTANA72021
Ester LakeMONTANA72024
SacoMONTANA62024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA62024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA62006
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA62024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA62012
GildfordMONTANA52023
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA52024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA52006
ShelbyMONTANA42024
LambertMONTANA42023
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA41983
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.