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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Ptarmigan Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Willow Ptarmigan in Alaska has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+87%Since 1984
40Routes In State
42Years

Notable Willow Ptarmigan Trends in Alaska

long arc increasecomputed index

Willow Ptarmigan has surged in Alaska: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Willow Ptarmigan Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Willow Ptarmigan in Alaska is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.195% range
±97%Backtest error
19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.30.003.1
20261.30.003.1
20271.30.003.1
20281.30.003.1
20291.30.003.1

Willow Ptarmigan Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Willow Ptarmigan in Alaska.
Red Dog8120241995
Cold Bay (Short)4519921984
Nome3120231993
Happy Valley2220241996
Teller1920241993
Savage1220241986
Salmon Lake520241993
Cold Bay520241993
Toklat420241982
Skagway420192014
King Salmon420241998
Pinoche Tral (Short)319841984
Kotzebue320242001
Selawik (Short)319871987
Utqiagvik220232021
Monahan220181983
Cape Nome220241993
Caribou Mtn.220231997
Galbraith L.220241995
St. Mary'S220141993
Kugarak (Short)219871987
Eagle120222007
Chiniak119981998
Paxson Lake119961991
Nabesna Road120161989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.