BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+311%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 104% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.17–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+104%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 104% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.17–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.160.47
20270.320.160.47
20280.320.170.48
20290.330.170.48
20300.330.170.48

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT42011
GranbyCONNECTICUT42024
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS42009
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE42023
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS32025
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA31998
ShermanCONNECTICUT22018
DanburyCONNECTICUT22017
Cape NeddickMAINE22012
CheltenhamMARYLAND22003
HongaMARYLAND22003
Fair HillMARYLAND21995
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS22014
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS22019
N. AndoverMASSACHUSETTS22025
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE22019
Jones BeachNEW-YORK22006
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND22019
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA21997
MysticCONNECTICUT12023
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT12015
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT12023
WoodstockCONNECTICUT12005
WestbrookCONNECTICUT12025
WillimanticCONNECTICUT12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.