BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.42.8
20272.11.42.8
20282.11.42.8
20292.11.42.8
20302.11.42.8

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HebronWISCONSIN112025
BismarkOHIO101995
AnnatonWISCONSIN92025
LawrenceMICHIGAN82025
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN72025
ViroquaWISCONSIN72024
WiotaWISCONSIN72025
MiddleburyINDIANA62025
PackertownINDIANA62004
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN61987
TyreMICHIGAN61996
HamburgMICHIGAN62001
EllisINDIANA52024
LakevilleINDIANA42024
Packertown 2INDIANA42025
NashvilleMICHIGAN42025
PettysvilleMICHIGAN41979
CohoctahMICHIGAN42025
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN42018
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA42025
OmroWISCONSIN42001
KendallWISCONSIN42023
Fall RiverWISCONSIN42025
EdenWISCONSIN42025
KnoxINDIANA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.