BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.42.8
20262.11.52.8
20272.11.52.8
20282.21.52.8
20292.21.52.8

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO101995
ParisWISCONSIN92024
GilmantonWISCONSIN82024
HebronWISCONSIN82024
ViroquaWISCONSIN72024
PackertownINDIANA62004
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN61987
TyreMICHIGAN61996
HamburgMICHIGAN62001
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN62023
PardeevilleWISCONSIN62024
WiotaWISCONSIN62024
MiddleburyINDIANA52024
EllisINDIANA52024
Packertown 2INDIANA52024
LawrenceMICHIGAN52024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN52024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN52024
EdenWISCONSIN52024
HighlandWISCONSIN52024
AnnatonWISCONSIN52024
BeloitWISCONSIN52024
LakevilleINDIANA42024
GalesburgMICHIGAN42024
PettysvilleMICHIGAN41979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.