BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 349% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+349%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 349% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.01–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.01–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.16
20260.080.000.16
20270.080.010.16
20280.080.010.16
20290.090.010.16

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelvidereNEBRASKA42024
Piester LakeNEBRASKA32021
KearneyNEBRASKA22024
SumnerNEBRASKA22024
SargentNEBRASKA22024
ColdwaterKANSAS11998
BuckeyeKANSAS11999
GrayKANSAS11997
LibertyNEBRASKA11992
KenesawNEBRASKA12013
PetersburgNEBRASKA12023
AlmeriaNEBRASKA12012
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12023
JohnstownNEBRASKA12021
KennedyNEBRASKA12008
TableNEBRASKA12004
BrownleeNEBRASKA12013
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA12023
Liberty 3NEBRASKA12024
NenzelNEBRASKA12024
BassettNEBRASKA12023
HendleyNEBRASKA12023
GrimesOKLAHOMA11970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.