BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 528% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+528%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.01–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.01–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.010.18
20270.090.010.18
20280.100.010.18
20290.100.010.18
20300.100.010.18

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SumnerNEBRASKA52025
KearneyNEBRASKA32025
Piester LakeNEBRASKA32021
SargentNEBRASKA22024
HamptonNEBRASKA22025
ColdwaterKANSAS11998
BuckeyeKANSAS11999
GrayKANSAS11997
LibertyNEBRASKA11992
BelvidereNEBRASKA12025
KenesawNEBRASKA12013
PetersburgNEBRASKA12023
AlmeriaNEBRASKA12012
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12023
JohnstownNEBRASKA12021
KennedyNEBRASKA12008
TableNEBRASKA12004
BrownleeNEBRASKA12025
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA12025
Liberty 3NEBRASKA12024
NenzelNEBRASKA12025
BassettNEBRASKA12023
HendleyNEBRASKA12023
GrimesOKLAHOMA11970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.