BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 279% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+279%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 279% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Willow Flycatcher In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.41–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.41–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.380.81
20260.600.390.82
20270.610.400.83
20280.620.410.84
20290.630.410.85

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoskeeWYOMING132000
DaytonWYOMING112024
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA71990
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA62024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA52022
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA42019
Moskee 2WYOMING42013
PowdervilleMONTANA32017
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA32019
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA32017
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA32017
MayoworthWYOMING32018
Two DotMONTANA22024
Hehn DrawMONTANA22024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA22022
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA22003
RedbirdWYOMING21979
HighwoodMONTANA12024
ShawmutMONTANA12002
FlatwillowMONTANA12003
ForsythMONTANA12017
Reed PointMONTANA11996
BrandenbergMONTANA11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.