BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.60
20260.220.000.59
20270.220.000.59
20280.210.000.59
20290.210.000.58

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH112023
BufordCOLORADO52024
Stillwater PassCOLORADO52007
Navajo LakeUTAH41974
JensenUTAH42024
TarryallCOLORADO32005
Steamboat L.COLORADO32024
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO32019
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO32024
YampaCOLORADO22023
HarmonyCOLORADO21998
Lost LakeCOLORADO22005
CastletonCOLORADO22024
AlamosaCOLORADO22024
ThomasvilleCOLORADO22013
Groundhog RsCOLORADO22005
Comanche PkCOLORADO22014
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO22002
CapulinNEW-MEXICO21993
Skyline DrivUTAH22007
BlandingUTAH21992
SoapstoneUTAH22019
HannaUTAH22024
Green RiverUTAH22008
Lost Cr. ResUTAH22008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.