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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 412% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+412%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.07–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.07–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.060.39
20270.230.060.39
20280.230.060.40
20290.230.070.40
20300.230.070.40

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northfld FlsVERMONT101997
GabrielsNEW-YORK41998
DannemoraNEW-YORK41995
New HartfordCONNECTICUT31987
East CalaisVERMONT31983
Wilson MillsMAINE21990
Otisfield GrMAINE22000
East TroyMAINE22021
CharlestonMAINE22014
WytopitlockMAINE21996
BenedictaMAINE21993
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS22025
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE22019
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE22002
PetersburgNEW-YORK22011
S WallingfrdVERMONT22021
W RutlandVERMONT22025
FletcherVERMONT22024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT11994
WestbrookMAINE12014
BiddefordMAINE12008
TurnerMAINE12010
GreenwoodMAINE12021
ReedsMAINE12022
HartfordMAINE12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.