BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+67%Since 1968
84Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Willow Flycatcher has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.6–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029
3.7Projected 2029 index
1.6–5.795% range
±69.9%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.61.65.7
20263.61.65.7
20273.61.65.7
20283.71.65.7
20293.71.65.7

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
CastileNEW-YORK142024
WatertownNEW-YORK122012
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA122023
NashvilleNEW-YORK112018
PittsfieldOHIO102024
GarrettsvileOHIO101991
HiramOHIO102021
E YoungstownNEW-YORK92023
CayugaNEW-YORK62024
SalemNEW-YORK62024
N VictoryNEW-YORK61972
LucerneOHIO62024
OrleansNEW-YORK52024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK52018
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA52024
BristolVERMONT52000
RhinebeckNEW-YORK42022
BranchportNEW-YORK42024
Canadice LNEW-YORK42014
SheridanNEW-YORK42024
PenfieldNEW-YORK42024
N Victory 2NEW-YORK42019
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK42024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK41998
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.