BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Northern Rockies has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.12.9
20272.01.12.9
20282.01.12.9
20292.01.12.9
20302.01.12.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChestnutMONTANA362025
NaplesIDAHO292025
CabartonIDAHO272024
SulaMONTANA182024
KalispellMONTANA162025
PierceIDAHO152007
NinemileMONTANA132025
ClintonMONTANA122025
WilsonWYOMING122025
CascadeIDAHO111984
LimaMONTANA102025
Deer ParkWASHINGTON102015
WoodmanMONTANA92025
EllistonMONTANA92025
Fish CreekMONTANA92024
ClancyMONTANA92025
DonnellyOREGON91995
ChallisIDAHO82025
Nezperce NfIDAHO71999
Fort LoganMONTANA72025
BridgeportOREGON72025
Cape HornIDAHO62025
Red RockMONTANA62025
East Glacier ParkMONTANA62025
Cramer CreekMONTANA62019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.