BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willet In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaShorebirds

Willet in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-61%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willet has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Willet In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willet in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±561.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±561.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±561.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.150.000.52
20210.150.000.52
20220.150.000.52
20230.150.000.52
20240.150.000.52

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Willet in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Key WestFLORIDA71987
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA51999
Plantation KFLORIDA31994
Merritt IslFLORIDA32011
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22019
Punta GordaFLORIDA22014
Holey LandFLORIDA21994
AripekaFLORIDA12016
Vero BeachFLORIDA12013
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.