BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willet In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Willet in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+112%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willet has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Willet In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willet in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.96–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.96–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.922.2
20261.50.932.2
20271.60.942.2
20281.60.952.2
20291.60.962.2

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Willet in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA142024
WestbyMONTANA82024
VirgelleMONTANA62024
Ester LakeMONTANA62024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA62014
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA62009
ChinookMONTANA52024
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA52024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA52024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA52013
ClevelandMONTANA42023
Great FallsMONTANA42023
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA42019
HarlemMONTANA32021
MaltaMONTANA32023
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA32024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA32024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA32022
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA32023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32023
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA32019
SunburstMONTANA22005
OswegoMONTANA22024
RedstoneMONTANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.