BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willet In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Willet in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willet has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Willet In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willet in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.92–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willet in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.92–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.882.1
20271.50.892.1
20281.50.902.2
20291.50.912.2
20301.50.922.2

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Willet in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WestbyMONTANA132025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA132025
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA72025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA62014
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA62009
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA52024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA52024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA52013
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA52025
ClevelandMONTANA42023
Great FallsMONTANA42023
ChinookMONTANA42025
Ester LakeMONTANA42025
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA42025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA42025
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA42019
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA42025
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA42023
HarlemMONTANA32021
GlasgowMONTANA32025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA32025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA32025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA32023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA32023
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.