BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-tipped Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

White-tipped Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+205%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-tipped Dove has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-tipped Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2028 — from 0.61 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±268.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±268.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tipped Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2028 — from 0.61 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±268.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.480.001.2
20250.480.001.2
20260.480.001.2
20270.480.001.2
20280.480.001.2

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording White-tipped Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San PedroTEXAS72023
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS62023
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12023
PetronilaTEXAS12021
Bayside 3TEXAS12012
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.