BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-tailed Hawk In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieBirds of prey

White-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+219%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-tailed Hawk has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 218% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

White-tailed Hawk In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.18–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.18–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.680.141.2
20270.680.151.2
20280.690.161.2
20290.700.171.2
20300.710.181.2

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording White-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IndianolaTEXAS52024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS42025
Padre Island PaisTEXAS42015
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS32025
Hinkles FerTEXAS22025
Rock IslandTEXAS22024
Loyola BeachTEXAS22009
ChinquapinTEXAS22025
Moon LakeTEXAS22005
San PedroTEXAS22023
PetronilaTEXAS12025
WinnieTEXAS12025
StowellTEXAS12001
DanburyTEXAS12001
KatyTEXAS12022
Oyster LakeTEXAS12024
Bayside 2TEXAS11999
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12023
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12016
McfaddinTEXAS12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.