BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-tailed Hawk In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

White-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+155%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-tailed Hawk has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

White-tailed Hawk In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.71 (95% range 0.17–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.71 (95% range 0.17–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.141.2
20260.680.151.2
20270.690.151.2
20280.700.161.2
20290.710.171.2

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording White-tailed Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IndianolaTEXAS52024
Padre Island PaisTEXAS42015
Lag AtascosaTEXAS32024
Hinkles FerTEXAS22024
Rock IslandTEXAS22024
Loyola BeachTEXAS22009
Moon LakeTEXAS22005
San PedroTEXAS22023
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS22023
PetronilaTEXAS12018
WinnieTEXAS12023
StowellTEXAS12001
DanburyTEXAS12001
KatyTEXAS12022
ChinquapinTEXAS12024
Oyster LakeTEXAS12024
Bayside 2TEXAS11999
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12023
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12016
McfaddinTEXAS12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.