BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White Ibis In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

White Ibis in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

24×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White Ibis has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 74 (95% range 5.9–142). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–14295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±184.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 74 (95% range 5.9–142). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025691.4137
2026702.5138
2027723.6140
2028734.8141
2029745.9142

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording White Ibis in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA3762019
RichardLOUISIANA3222024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA1312011
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA1122024
Vinton 2LOUISIANA1092024
McfaddinTEXAS862011
KaplanLOUISIANA802023
Forked IslandLOUISIANA662024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA502024
LafitteLOUISIANA451991
WinnieTEXAS362023
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA312017
GlencoeLOUISIANA302017
IndianolaTEXAS292024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS252024
MauriceLOUISIANA232024
KatyTEXAS232024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA212021
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS162023
Grand IsleLOUISIANA152018
Loyola BeachTEXAS132007
San PedroTEXAS111998
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA101982
HackberryLOUISIANA102016
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS102022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.