BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White Ibis In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

White Ibis in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has risen sharply: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White Ibis has risen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White Ibis In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 274% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±383.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+274%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±383.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 274% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±383.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025170.0038
2026170.0038
2027170.0038
2028180.0039
2029180.0039

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording White Ibis in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KeystoneLOUISIANA2652013
FreetownLOUISIANA492009
Morgan CityLOUISIANA471986
ShawLOUISIANA432024
FloydLOUISIANA352002
MayflowerLOUISIANA342024
RamahLOUISIANA322024
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI291979
KraemerLOUISIANA282024
RayvilleLOUISIANA251996
TippoMISSISSIPPI251996
MoonMISSISSIPPI212009
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI202018
Morgan CityLOUISIANA132022
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI122024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA102021
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA92003
ConcordLOUISIANA82011
GonzalesLOUISIANA72019
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI62017
DelhiLOUISIANA52017
GibsonLOUISIANA42015
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA42024
LaroseLOUISIANA31990
EudoraARKANSAS22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.