BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White Ibis In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

White Ibis in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+76%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White Ibis has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 228% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+228%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±146.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 228% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.004.4
20261.60.004.4
20271.60.004.4
20281.60.004.5
20291.70.004.5

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording White Ibis in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EnterpriseLOUISIANA2402019
Lake CoveLOUISIANA1132017
CheniereLOUISIANA702009
Union HillTEXAS402019
GoodwillLOUISIANA362023
DerryLOUISIANA291989
LivingstonTEXAS252000
NatchitochesLOUISIANA231989
AthensTEXAS152016
De QuincyLOUISIANA142017
EvelynLOUISIANA142022
WomackLOUISIANA132024
OakdaleLOUISIANA101991
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA71996
Town BluffTEXAS72024
MortonTEXAS72023
FredTEXAS72018
Derry 2LOUISIANA52023
HaughtonLOUISIANA52010
Ivan 2LOUISIANA42016
NatchezLOUISIANA32024
HopeARKANSAS22024
FishvilleLOUISIANA22011
New WaverlyTEXAS22023
DibollTEXAS22006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.