BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White Ibis In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

White Ibis in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1980.

16×Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White Ibis has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.004.1
20261.70.004.1
20271.70.004.2
20281.80.004.2
20291.80.004.2

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording White Ibis in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CayugaTEXAS452024
Massey LakeTEXAS232024
CarlosTEXAS222024
Mount ZionTEXAS112024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS92022
Oak GroveTEXAS51987
BonnerTEXAS22016
Arenosa CrkTEXAS11984
DallasTEXAS12015
DikeTEXAS12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.