BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

White-headed Woodpecker in California has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+114%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-headed Woodpecker Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-headed Woodpecker has surged in California: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, White-headed Woodpecker in California is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.36–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-headed Woodpecker in California is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.36–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.590.340.85
20270.600.340.85
20280.600.350.85
20290.600.350.86
20300.610.360.86

White-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in California

Routes recording White-headed Woodpecker in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chilcoot1120241998
Riverton920251973
Bartle820211972
Pilot Creek619961994
Westville520251971
Lake Hemet519861970
Greenhorn Mt520081971
Hat Creek520181973
Goumaz520111998
Cottage Spgs419751969
Johnsville420251975
Woodfords420251975
Valyermo420191970
Mccloud420211973
Little Truckee420251998
Forest Hill420252004
Lassen Park319891972
Fallsvale319811970
Chaos Crater320191993
Angelus Oaks320171998
Dirigio320141999
Tionesta320211997
Eagle Lake220241969
Bass Lake219811980
Lumberyard220251976

White-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.