BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-headed Woodpecker In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

White-headed Woodpecker in Coastal California has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-82%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-headed Woodpecker has collapsed in Coastal California: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

White-headed Woodpecker In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-headed Woodpecker in Coastal California is projected to rise about 49% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-headed Woodpecker in Coastal California is projected to rise about 49% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.100.000.32
20240.100.000.32
20250.100.000.32
20260.090.000.31
20270.090.000.31

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording White-headed Woodpecker in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA51986
ValyermoCALIFORNIA42019
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA31981
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA32017
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA22016
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA12003
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA11980
Big BearCALIFORNIA11983
TujungaCALIFORNIA11995
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA12010
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA12022
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA12022
White RiverCALIFORNIA11990
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA12021
TehamaCALIFORNIA12011
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA11985
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA12005
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA12022
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.