BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-headed Woodpecker In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

White-headed Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-13%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-headed Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

White-headed Woodpecker In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-headed Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.87–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.87–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-headed Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.87–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.863.0
20261.90.873.0
20271.90.873.0
20281.90.873.0
20291.90.873.0

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording White-headed Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChilcootCALIFORNIA112024
LumberyardCALIFORNIA82024
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA52024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA52008
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA52018
GoumazCALIFORNIA52011
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA41975
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA31989
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA32021
SattleyCALIFORNIA32019
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA32019
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA32023
Forest HillCALIFORNIA32022
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA22024
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA21981
ChesterCALIFORNIA22017
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA22023
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA22014
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA22017
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22019
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12018
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA12012
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.