BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-faced Ibis In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

White-faced Ibis in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-faced Ibis has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-faced Ibis In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 524% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 0.00–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±238.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+524%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±238.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 524% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 0.00–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±238.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026260.0061
2027260.0061
2028260.0061
2029260.0061
2030260.0061

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording White-faced Ibis in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CreoleLOUISIANA1521980
KaplanLOUISIANA852023
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA612019
MamouLOUISIANA461968
San PedroTEXAS431999
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA301980
WoodlawnLOUISIANA282021
GlencoeLOUISIANA222001
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA162025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS142021
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA132025
StowellTEXAS132025
MauriceLOUISIANA122024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA122011
Lag AtascosaTEXAS122025
WinnieTEXAS122025
Moon LakeTEXAS112011
Vinton 2LOUISIANA102025
ChinquapinTEXAS92021
Loyola BeachTEXAS82008
Bayside 2TEXAS72004
Goliad PrairieTEXAS72013
EstherLOUISIANA62025
KatyTEXAS62024
DanburyTEXAS52022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.