BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-faced Ibis In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

White-faced Ibis in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+134%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-faced Ibis has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

White-faced Ibis In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±600.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±600.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±600.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.001.0
20260.410.001.0
20270.410.001.0
20280.420.001.0
20290.420.001.0

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording White-faced Ibis in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbertKANSAS582019
Crescent LkNEBRASKA402017
JetOKLAHOMA222013
BrownleeNEBRASKA142018
TableNEBRASKA132008
KennedyNEBRASKA72016
Swan LakeNEBRASKA32021
CoatsKANSAS21996
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA12024
BassettNEBRASKA12019
HaskellTEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.