BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-faced Ibis In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

White-faced Ibis in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-87%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-faced Ibis has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

White-faced Ibis In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1637.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1637.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1637.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.90
20260.220.000.90
20270.210.000.89
20280.210.000.89
20290.210.000.89

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording White-faced Ibis in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GruverTEXAS152007
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO121999
PlymellKANSAS112001
PantexTEXAS102016
WakaTEXAS102016
KiowaCOLORADO92000
HudsonCOLORADO82012
ClovisNEW-MEXICO82013
TenmileTEXAS72019
PanhandleTEXAS62016
Fort MorganCOLORADO52001
JulesburgCOLORADO52021
ClaytonvilleTEXAS42019
NeegrandeCOLORADO32018
FlaglerCOLORADO32012
CircleTEXAS22017
FloydadaTEXAS22017
DoughertyTEXAS22022
EdisonCOLORADO12023
Arsenal 2COLORADO12022
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12003
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO12013
PostTEXAS12012
LingleWYOMING12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.