BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-faced Ibis In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWetland birds

White-faced Ibis in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-94%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-faced Ibis has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

White-faced Ibis In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±273.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±273.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±273.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.93
20260.110.000.92
20270.100.000.90
20280.090.000.89
20290.070.000.88

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording White-faced Ibis in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FruitaCOLORADO412006
San LuisCOLORADO132021
MoffatCOLORADO121999
Mcphee Res.COLORADO102016
DoylevilleCOLORADO82018
DinosaurCOLORADO82010
AngoraCOLORADO82010
MoscaCOLORADO71994
EscalanteUTAH61999
CortezCOLORADO52003
Cortez 2COLORADO42013
DulceNEW-MEXICO42019
GuffeyCOLORADO32018
AlamosaCOLORADO32024
Weston PassCOLORADO32000
Wellington 2UTAH32011
TarryallCOLORADO22008
YampaiARIZONA11977
TincupCOLORADO12018
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO12024
AnethUTAH12003
Dixie NfUTAH12013
WellingtonUTAH12001
AltonUTAH12000
Wellington 3UTAH12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.