BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-crowned Pigeon In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

White-crowned Pigeon in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-crowned Pigeon has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-crowned Pigeon In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Pigeon in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1885.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1885.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Pigeon in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1885.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.003.6
20270.360.003.6
20280.320.003.6
20290.280.003.5
20300.240.003.5

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording White-crowned Pigeon in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA922004
Key LargoFLORIDA701991
Key WestFLORIDA301987
Plantation KFLORIDA252004
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA162021
Card SoundFLORIDA92021
HomesteadFLORIDA31988
Weaver StnFLORIDA12010
FlamingoFLORIDA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.