Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Whimbrel In BCR 4
Whimbrel in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
-74%Since 1985
12Routes In Region
34Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Whimbrel has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Whimbrel in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±350.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6695% range
±350.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Savage | ALASKA | 11 | 2024 |
| Paxson Lake | ALASKA | 4 | 1996 |
| Homer | ALASKA | 2 | 1982 |
| Maclaren | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| Monahan | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| Cantwell | ALASKA | 1 | 2018 |
| Toklat | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Bear Creek | ALASKA | 1 | 1991 |
| Caribou Mtn. | ALASKA | 1 | 2015 |
| Donelly Dome | ALASKA | 1 | 2012 |
| Kobuk River (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 1991 |
| Galena (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 1985 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.