BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Tanager In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Western Tanager in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Tanager in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Western Tanager In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 7.4–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 7.4–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.414
2027117.414
2028117.414
2029117.414
2030117.414

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Western Tanager in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA602017
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA582019
CecilvilleCALIFORNIA472017
Secret ValOREGON472025
OrleansCALIFORNIA462012
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA452022
Orleans 2CALIFORNIA422014
Mendota 3WASHINGTON422025
AlderpointCALIFORNIA412012
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA372025
ElktonOREGON352025
RuchOREGON342025
CinderellaOREGON342025
ProspectOREGON342025
HullvilleCALIFORNIA322019
Cedar FallsWASHINGTON292014
CamasWASHINGTON282009
Elk LakeOREGON272025
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA261970
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA251996
Hazel CampOREGON252022
RainierWASHINGTON242025
LongvaleCALIFORNIA222023
DirigioCALIFORNIA222014
LoraneOREGON212025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.