BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Tanager In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Western Tanager in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Tanager in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.314
2026117.314
2027117.314
2028117.314
2029117.314

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Western Tanager in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA602017
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA582019
CecilvilleCALIFORNIA472017
OrleansCALIFORNIA462012
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA452022
Orleans 2CALIFORNIA422014
AlderpointCALIFORNIA412012
ElktonOREGON382024
ClearwaterOREGON342021
Secret ValOREGON332022
HullvilleCALIFORNIA322019
Mendota 3WASHINGTON312024
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA302024
Cedar FallsWASHINGTON292014
CamasWASHINGTON282009
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA261970
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA262024
CinderellaOREGON262024
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA251996
Hazel CampOREGON252022
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON252024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA222023
DirigioCALIFORNIA222014
RuchOREGON212023
CougarWASHINGTON212023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.