BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Tanager In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Western Tanager in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Tanager has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Tanager In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.85–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.85–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.782.7
20271.80.802.7
20281.80.822.8
20291.80.842.8
20301.80.852.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Western Tanager in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA422025
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA302025
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA182025
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA141991
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA142012
Maynard CouleeMONTANA122025
Moskee 3WYOMING102025
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA92004
SundanceWYOMING92025
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA72021
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
MoskeeWYOMING62001
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA42013
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA42002
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
Wheat BasinMONTANA22024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA22023
MeadowdaleWYOMING21990
Seely 2WYOMING22022
Moskee 2WYOMING22021
HighwoodMONTANA12019
LeroyMONTANA12016
BrusettMONTANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.