BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Tanager In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Western Tanager in Badlands and Prairies has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Tanager in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.83–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.83–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Tanager in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.83–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.762.7
20261.80.782.7
20271.80.802.7
20281.80.812.8
20291.80.832.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Western Tanager in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA292024
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA232022
Maynard CouleeMONTANA172024
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA141991
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA142012
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA132024
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA112024
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA92004
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA72021
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA72018
Moskee 3WYOMING72024
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
MoskeeWYOMING62001
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA42013
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA42002
Reed PointMONTANA32024
Wheat BasinMONTANA22024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA22023
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
MeadowdaleWYOMING21990
Seely 2WYOMING22022
Moskee 2WYOMING22021
HighwoodMONTANA12019
LeroyMONTANA12016
BrusettMONTANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.