BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.008.6
20260.340.008.4
20270.140.008.2
20280.000.008.0
20290.000.008.0

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EngleNEW-MEXICO421989
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO411977
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO352024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO322019
ValentineTEXAS231987
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO152017
DemingNEW-MEXICO141974
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO112021
Delaware CrkTEXAS101988
LongfellowTEXAS91979
CornudasTEXAS82018
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO72023
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO62024
Black GapTEXAS61998
Salt FlatTEXAS52015
RoswellNEW-MEXICO42023
ShafterTEXAS31985
AltudaTEXAS32023
OzonaTEXAS32005
JornadaNEW-MEXICO22021
SlaughterTEXAS22014
GirvinTEXAS22017
Bear MtnTEXAS22013
CanutilloTEXAS22021
Van HornTEXAS22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.