BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.6 (95% range 0.51–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.6 (95% range 0.51–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.50.396.6
20263.50.426.7
20273.60.456.7
20283.60.486.7
20293.60.516.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mormon LakeARIZONA431975
FlagstaffARIZONA322022
Skull ValleyARIZONA262024
MaineARIZONA172024
Clay SpringARIZONA102024
PinetopARIZONA92022
Happy JackARIZONA92024
AlpineARIZONA62022
Peña BlancaARIZONA32000
PortalARIZONA31979
San SimonARIZONA21995
Bartlett ResARIZONA21995
AmadoARIZONA22016
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO22006
PrescottARIZONA12017
PomereneARIZONA11979
SunizonaARIZONA11997
WilliamsARIZONA12016
Forest LakesARIZONA12024
SahuaritaARIZONA12010
SprucedaleARIZONA12023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12003
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO11992
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.